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Thorsten Ball - What I believe about the future of software development

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  1. No Silver Bullet: Essence and Accidents of Software Engineering

    Brooks argues that software development’s fundamental difficulty lies in essential complexity—conceptual design, conformity, changeability, and invisibility—rather than accidental implementation issues. Consequently, no single technology or management trick will yield an order‑of‑magnitude productivity boost; progress must come from disciplined, incremental improvements.

    Hall of Fameunc.edu34 minpaperHN11731
  2. Non Cogito, Ergo Quid Sum?

    The essay argues that LLMs are already outperforming human programmers and rapidly becoming cheaper, which could render software engineers obsolete. It warns of societal consequences and doubts that handcrafted code will retain premium value.

    Yegor Bugayenkoyegor256.com5 min
  3. The Way and Remainder

    The article reflects on the evolution of software development from manual coding to AI‑assisted generation, arguing that human developers are now the "remainder" handling prompts, reviews, and judgment. It warns that hiring criteria and team culture will shift as AI takes over most coding work.

    Jake Yesbeckjakeyesbeck.com3 min
  4. The Humble Programmer

    Dijkstra recounts the early struggle for programming to be recognized as a profession, noting how increased hardware power paradoxically led to a "software crisis" by enabling more complex ambitions. He argues that machine designs often exacerbate this, emphasizing that the core challenge is managing complexity, not just hardware optimization.

    Hall of Fameutexas.edu30 minHN13535